Now What?

U.S. domestic politics is not something that I want to dwell on in this blog.  And yet, enough of my friends, especially foreign friends, ask what the crazy goings on in America mean, especially that one special time every four years when American collectively loses its mind in the primaries and Presidential election season.

On Tuesday night, New Hampshire held its first in the nation primary for President.  The Republican party fully participated in the primary, while the democrats, in spite of essentially disenfranchising the state for not kowtowing to President Biden’s efforts to change the first primary to South Carolina, conducted a strange vote in campaign for him, put together at the last minute.

We all know who was running.  Former President Donald Trump for the Republicans, challenged by Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina.  Two primary Democratic challengers to Biden, Congressman Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson.

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fter a day that saw relatively low voter turnout, the results were shocking to some, but not to others.  On the Republican side, Trump won, with 54.4 percent of votes cast, with Nikki Haley getting 43.3 percent.  For the Democrats, Biden won 66.6 percent with his write in campaign, while Phillips got 19.5 percent and Williamson 4 percent.

What does this all mean?  Most likely is what nobody seems to want to hear.  While Haley remains in the race, and may gain momentum, especially in her home state of South Carolina, the primary race seems to be pretty much over.  Haley stays in in part in case Trump is somehow rendered ineligible to continue his campaign, while Biden, for all intents and purposes, is the Democratic party candidate, which is not a major surprise to anyone.

In the next month, we will know for certain if Haley’s bid to stay in the race will pay off.  From whatever point she makes her final decision, the primaries will become moot, and both parties will move into the general election.  This is a very unusual situation, as normally the general election begins in the summer when the Olympics end and the two parties hold their conventions.

So, what can we look forward to now?  The main questions out there are:  Will one of Trump’s indictments somehow invalidate him from running?  I doubt it.  Will Haley stay in the race for long after February 24 if she does not win in her home state?  I doubt it, although she has powerful backing and has the resources to stay in.  Is she running for Vice President?  I doubt that too, as Trump is likely to keep viewing her as disloyal.  What about Biden’s age and health?  On that one, I am not at all sure.

Time to go back to my preferred subjects… but happy to discuss the primary!

DrJCal