The Middle East Remade, But By Who?

I finally got to open my January/February edition of Foreign Affairs today. The title article is "The Self Doubting Superpower," by Fareed Zakaria, but that review is for later. The first article in the edition is entitled "The Middle East Remade," by Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr. The topic, of course, is how the region and the world have changed since the brutal Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023. I hate to link to a firewall, but the article is here: The War That Remade the Middle East | Foreign Affairs.

I have no major issues with the basic coverage of the piece, which focuses on the need to return to a two state solution, and that Saudia Arabia is a key player in the region, which must be increasingly courted by Washington as a counterbalance to Iran. Iran is named as the instigator of the attacks, and the key beneficiary of the negative reaction that Israel's response has generated globally, and especially in the global south.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) gets a mention, both as the main global competitor of the US and as a spoiler to U.S. projects such as the Indian-Middle Eastern-European Economic Corridor (more to follow on that in another piece).

What I find to be missing from the piece is any mention of the timing of the Hamas/Iranian attacks as well as who else might have had a role in them or benefit from them. I would argue that the answer to both goes unnoted - yes, I mean Moscow. Russia's role in instigating the attacks at that moment receives little attention, and yet they, not Iran or the PRC, were the primary beneficiaries. In one single day, Ukraine and western support for Ukrainian resistance to ongoing Russian aggression took a publicity and financial hit from which is has not yet recovered.

Israel and Ukraine have both named Moscow as being a key motivator for the attacks. Newsweek thought so too Is Russia Behind Hamas Attack on Israel? What We Know (newsweek.com). Radio Free Europe thought that there was Russian support, but not direct military assistance What Role Does Russia Have To Play In Hamas's Invasion Of Israel? Q&A With Expert Hanna Notte (rferl.org). The WaPo saw support Opinion | Vladimir Putin is helping Hamas to hurt the West - The Washington Post.

It seems that as always, where you stand depends on where you sit in what you will believe to be true about Russian support. For me, Russia's potential for gain, its close ties with Iran, and its desperation to distract the west from Ukraine in any way possible make it highly likely that there is a Russian connection in Gaza erupting Right Now. In the same way, the timing of Russia's proxy Venezuela picking Now to stir up trouble seems to have the same purpose, to distract the US and deflect its attention away from the real threats.