The Russian Invasion, Two Years On

For this, I decided to share an OPED that I wrote for the Spanish Newspaper El Razon in recognition of the recent anniversary, sort of a "Part Two" to last week's post.

Where we have been and where are we going?

It has now been two years since Russia decided to widen the war in Ukraine which it began in 2014 with the illegal seizure of the Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  Just two years, and yet the world has fundamentally and profoundly changed as a result. Russia has been revealed to the world as a bullying and barbaric, wielding such waning brute strength as it can muster to attack the very civilians that it also claims are just misguided Russians who need to be brought back into the so called “Russian peace.”  It, a fascist state, claims to be fighting Nazis in Ukraine (who continue to be led by a Jew).

Two years on, and Ukraine has endured the loss of 20 percent of its territory, and yet still fights on, showing increasing prudence and more willingness to fight an attrition battle and avoid “Verdun” like bloodbaths such as Bakhmut last year.  Ukraine has endured a change of military command, ensuring the primacy of civilian government.  This is a very good thing, and along with increasing crackdowns on corrupt government officials and Russian spies, is growing proof that Ukraine deserves to be in Europe, and NATO.  The Ukrainians have also overcome their own excellent information warfare, admitting that they occasionally need to withdraw, for example, and that a quick counteroffensive is unlikely. This war continues to be the defining event in Ukraine’s history.  What Valley Forge and the Revolution did in terms of creating the uniting mythology of the United States (with significant Spanish help!), places like Snake Island, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka are doing for Ukraine, and will always be remembered by the Ukrainian people.

As happens every four years, the U.S. is completely consumed by its coming election.  If ever proof was needed that America remains an indispensable power in the world, the continued criticality of who sits in the White House proves it.  Speaking of the White House. One of the few true positives of the Biden White House has been its unwavering support for Ukraine.  It was a surprise, and a welcome one, that Biden engaged in the issue as he did, even if there are times when he was drug along by the British and others.  Now, finally, perhaps even as the two year anniversary approaches, we will see the U.S. Congress approve the military aid that Ukraine desperately needs to continue to defend the west, and Taiwan, from a return to the militant barbarity of the past.

Europe has changed as a result of the war.  It seems that Germany has, somehow, met its requirements to NATO, and continues to find, build, and send weapons to Ukraine. Denmark just offered to send all of its field artillery to Ukraine. Finland is in NATO and Sweden is coming in as well.  Turkey has helped guarantee the passage of grain ships from Odessa to help feed the world. Although unable to fill the gap left by U.S. support in recent months, Europe has stepped up its aid to Kyiv significantly, and hopefully that will continue even after the U.S. help starts to flow again.

What will happen in the coming year?  It is very hard to pull out the crystal ball and make any kind of prediction.  The easy answer is that 2024 will look like 2023.  Ukraine will hold Russia from any significant gains, while taking back areas when it can.  But I am optimistic and think that there will be positive change. The air war may change with Ukraine receiving significant support in aircraft, especially F-16s.  Sanctions will continue to grow and throw Russia even further out of economic alignment with the rest of the world.  Russia’s “Friends” will continue to demand more and more unfair deals which Moscow will have to accept to continue to get the money it needs to keep attacking, even if those attacks become more barbaric, less coordinated, and more deadly.

What I am sadly, but absolutely sure of, is that the fighting, and killing, will continue.  And so must western support for the Ukrainian struggle also continue.