Ukraine - We Can't Forget

This week, I’d like to talk about where things are with Ukraine.  As always, it is hard to tell what is going on.  The Ukrainian government and armed forces remain supremely good at Operational Security (OPSEC), which is very good for keeping their soldiers alive but also a block to gaining a full understanding of the situation.  By the way, good for them.  They shouldn’t change a thing!

As a look at history will tell anyone, it’s a terrible time for a military campaign in the region.  For nearly the second January of the war, the Russians are re-learning this at great cost.  They do not, thankfully, have the resources to launch the kind of real frontal offensive that might overstretch Ukrainian resources, so instead they launch local offensives that can be parried, or outright crushed, by Ukrainian defenders utilizing interior lines and superior intelligence gathering capabilities.

Meanwhile Ukraine is capable of holding its own but incapable and unwilling to gamble on big actions until the impasse in Congress is over and they can be ensured of consistent support.  This week, Washington announced that newer, long range munitions would be made available to Kyiv.  Every little bit helps.  F-16s will help even more once they can be deployed in strength. 

Everything that is happening elsewhere in the world, from Venezuela’s saber rattling over Guyana to the Houthi terror attacks on international shipping, is a distraction from Russia’s ongoing effort to destroy Ukraine.  And let there be no doubt, that’s what this is about.  Its about destroying Ukraine and the western rules based order, not only in Eastern Europe but globally.  It is an attack on NATO, on the European Union, on the United Nations, and on peace.

So:  Some specifics, a sort of simple news wrap up.  It looks as though the Russians might have given up on encircling Andiivka, for now, according to the Institute for the Study of War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org).  This means another grinding series of frontal offensives much like the battle of Bakhmut last year, although hopefully without success.

It also appears that there is a rift between President Zelensky and Senior General Zaluzhny , but that may, or may not be true Did Zelensky Fire Ukraine Armed Forces Commander Zaluzhny? What We Know (newsweek.com). This information may very well change in the next few hours.  There was reporting yesterday, January 30, that Zaluzhny was out, while today the Zelensky government denies that.  Zaluzhny has, in recent months, made several statements about the progress of the war, saying that it was at a Stalemate Ukraine: Exhausted and disappointed with allies, President Zelensky and military chief warn of long attritional war | CNN, which may or may not be true, but which is definitely something that the Government can’t admit to, given its (justified) claims to continue fighting until all the land taken since 2014 is returned.

Meanwhile there are hints just this week that Russia is starting a new offensive around Kharkiv, Ukraine War Map Shows Where Russia's 2024 Offensive Is Already 'Underway' (msn.com) In other words, the war goes on, and Ukrainians go on dying while Congress debates further support.  This is Ukraine’s Valley Forge, or Gallipoli, its modern founding mythology fueled by courageous resistance against great odds, and also by great sacrifice.   Even the internal bickering sound like what was happening in the Continental Congress.

Most important, we have to keep the information about the war flowing. It can’t be allowed to be forgotten about, and I will write about it here as often as possible.